eCommerce Market to Reach 440 Billion Transactions by 2030 Globally, With Emerging Markets and Agentic Commerce Set to Accelerate Growth

A new study by global tech strategists Juniper Research has found that eCommerce payment transactions will exceed 440 billion globally by 2030; up from 277 billion in 2025. „This substantial 60% growth reflects increasing access to eCommerce in emerging markets, as well as the boost agentic commerce will bring to the sector.” – according to the press release.

The research found that the three fastest regions for eCommerce transaction growth over the next five years will be:

1. Latin America: 258%
2. Africa & Middle East: 155%
3. Central & East Europe: 114%

Nick Maynard, VP, Fintech Market Research at Juniper Research, commented: “eCommerce is rapidly growing as both payments and logistics infrastructure scale up in new markets. Capitalising on this growth potential means identifying ideal partners to localise eCommerce for each market, rather than relying on a one-size-fits-all approach.”

Agentic Commerce Set to Transform eCommerce

The research identified agentic commerce as a key trend set to transform the way eCommerce works. Agentic commerce is where AI agents discover products for shoppers and handle payments; replacing the traditional checkout process.

While agentic commerce is at an early stage of development, heavy investment has gone into building out the payments infrastructure, with key payments vendors such as Visa, Mastercard, and Stripe rolling out solutions.

“The displacement of the checkout process by agentic commerce threatens to completely remove the control merchants have over checkout processes; disrupting the whole eCommerce model. Payments companies must support merchants as they navigate their fundamental role in an emerging agentic world,” Maynard concluded.

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An extract from the new report, eCommerce Payments Market 2025-2030, is available as a free sample.