New research from ClearBank and Celent reveals that a fifth of electronic money institutions (EMIs) and payment institutions (PIs) expect to miss July 2027 compliance deadlines by 3-6 months. 61% of banks expect to spend over €20m to achieve compliance, while most non-banks expect to spend less than €10m. Also, new access models for EMIs spark fresh competition to increase pressure on partner banks.
New research from ClearBank, conducted by Celent, and in collaboration with Plaid, reveals that Europe’s payments industry is on the cusp of a significant transformation, resulting from the introduction of the Instant Payment Regulation’s SEPA Instant Credit Transfer (SEPA Instant) mandates. The report, ‘SEPA Instant: Build it and they will come,’ finds that real-time SEPA Instant payments will surpass traditional transfers by 2030, becoming the second most used non-cash payment type by 2035, accounting for 18% of all eurozone payments.
By July 2027, all banks, electronic money institutions (EMIs), and payment institutions (PIs), including those outside of the eurozone, will be required to send and receive instant euro payments, while ensuring charges applied are equal across all transactions
The research revealed three trends with significant implications for banks, EMIs, PIs, and their customers:
Banks are more prepared for 2027 SEPA mandates: With all bank respondents having complied with the previous requirements, 55% are already compliant with the July 2027 mandates, and the majority (95-97%) believe they will be ready in time. In contrast, one in five Electronic Money Institutions (EMIs) and Payment Institutions (PIs) already expect to miss the July 2027 compliance deadline by up to six months.
Investment disparities between banks and EMIs/PIs: 61% of banks anticipate spending over €20 million to achieve compliance (total capital and annualised operating expenses), including 23% that will outlay between €50 million and €100 million. However, most non-banks expect to spend less than €10 million. This investment and readiness are also reflected in new service innovation, with more than three in five corporate banks already collaborating with clients on new instant payment use cases, compared with a quarter of EMIs.
Changing access models create new competitive pressures: EMIs are also looking to take advantage of the changes to the Settlement Finality Directive that will enable them to become direct participants in SEPA clearing systems for the first time. Four in ten (41%) EMIs said that they intend to take up this option, with 12% having already secured direct access to SEPA. This shift is increasing pressure on partner banks, as up to 78% of EMIs and PIs would consider changing providers if their SEPA Instant service falls short.
These findings are based on a Celent survey of over 100 financial institutions operating across 10 European markets, as well as a model forecasting SEPA Instant volume, based on market developments and drivers, payment volume data available from GlobalData and other sources.
“The move to instant payments in Europe is accelerating a broader transformation towards real-time, intelligent banking. This report shows that the industry is optimistic about this shift across the eurozone, driven by the changes to the Instant Payments Regulation. The real winners will be firms that go beyond compliance and innovate to create seamless, secure, and intelligent payment experiences, where money moves as fast as information, and banking truly happens in an instant. We believe that partnering with a bank built for real-time transactions, such as ClearBank, offers the speed, security and robustness these firms need without incurring the significant ongoing costs of being direct members.” – said Ezequiel Canestrari, COO, ClearBank Europe.
“The past decade has transformed financial services through digitisation, and AI-driven agents will accelerate this shift by reshaping how people and businesses transact. Against a backdrop of regulatory momentum mandating instant payments, real-time settlement is becoming the default rather than the exception. This convergence is catapulting open banking into open finance, unlocking new use cases across payments, lending, and treasury. Institutions that invest now in high-quality data access and resilient instant-payment infrastructure will be best positioned to capture the next wave of value.” – said Martijn Bos, European Policy Lead, Plaid.
As the July 2027 deadline approaches, these insights highlight both the urgency and the opportunity for financial institutions to deliver real-time payments across Europe. 73% of respondents believe that the SCT Instant mandates will have a positive impact on the industry, with almost seven in ten (69%) saying the changes will benefit customers and 65% thinking it will improve their institutions.
Technology and the future of eurozone payments
The growth in SEPA Instant transaction volumes is also likely to be accelerated by other developments in payments, including the adoption of agentic commerce and stablecoins. Celent anticipates that traditional credit transfers may become nearly obsolete as a significant proportion of transactions currently done via direct debit or cards migrate to instant, account-to-account methods. In a scenario where 20% of card and direct debit transactions, plus all remaining SEPA Credit transactions, move to SEPA Instant, volumes could exceed 90 billion transactions by 2035.
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Related document: SEPA Instant adoption in Europe – Download now
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